Here’s the jolt: 45% of NYC Republican voters now say they back Andrew Cuomo. This is more than Curtis Sliwa at 44% in the latest Quinnipiac poll. For a former New York Governor running as an independent, this is a rare crossover in the United States.
The Quinnipiac poll of 911 likely voters, fielded October 23–27, shows Zohran Mamdani at 43%, Cuomo at 33%, and Sliwa at 14%. There are 6% undecided and 3% refusing. This mix suggests late motion and a volatile finish.
Republican defections toward Cuomo, paired with an even split among independents, reframes the contest’s center of gravity. Democrats are backing Mamdani by wide margins. Yet, GOP leaners crossing over could shift the map. As Election Day nears, NYC Republican voters are testing a new lane—and the numbers show it.
Overview of the Quinnipiac polling institute findings in the NYC mayoral race
The Quinnipiac polling institute has released new numbers on the New York City mayoral race. These numbers are getting a lot of attention from voters in all five boroughs. Their non-partisan approach makes the results clear and trustworthy.
Readers who follow quinnipiac polls and republican polls will notice a pattern. This pattern includes changes in the NY Republican polls.
Methodology and timing of the survey
Quinnipiac University talked to 911 likely voters from October 23–27. They used methods like probability-based sampling and random digit dialing. They reached both landlines and cell phones to get a wide range of opinions.
The results came out on October 29. Doug Schwartz, Ph.D., led the effort. This shows Quinnipiac’s commitment to fair and unbiased polls.
This method is in line with the best practices in polling. It provides detailed information on party, age, and issues. This makes Quinnipiac polls a key reference point, alongside republican polls and NY Republican polls.
For those interested in public opinion research, Quinnipiac University jobs are also in the spotlight.
Margin of error and sample size for likely voters
The sample size was 911 respondents, with a margin of error of +/- 4.0 percentage points. This level of precision is important for understanding small changes. The results show a stable order, with a slight shift towards Andrew Cuomo among Republicans.
The use of probability methods and live calls makes the results reliable for citywide races. This gives campaigns and media a consistent standard to follow, unlike other polls.
How Quinnipiac polls compare to other republican polls
Quinnipiac polls show the same order as other surveys: Zohran Mamdani first, Andrew Cuomo second, Curtis Sliwa third. But they highlight a unique trend among Republicans. Cuomo is now leading Sliwa 45% to 44% in the GOP.
A Manhattan Institute survey from October 22–26 shows a bigger gap between Mamdani and Cuomo. It places Sliwa at 19%. The differences in methods and sample sizes explain these variations in NY Republican polls.
For job seekers and researchers, the quality and transparency of Quinnipiac University’s work are key. It makes their jobs appealing to those who value fair and unbiased polling.
Republican voters rally in New York: why GOP support is edging toward Andrew Cuomo
A new republican poll shows a surprising shift. At a rally in new york, voters talk about results and electability, not just labels. Many see former New York Governor, Andrew Cuomo, as a strong choice against a leftward turn. This is despite the ongoing republican polls and repulican polls testing the field.
Cuomo’s 45% among Republicans versus 44% for Curtis Sliwa
The latest republican poll has Andrew Cuomo at 45% with Republican likely voters. Curtis Sliwa trails at 44%. Mamdani gets 5%, and 5% are undecided. These numbers suggest a narrow lead for Cuomo, seen in several republican polls and repulican polls.
Endorsements from GOP figures and cross-party momentum
Support from Republicans like Rep. Nick Langworthy and Rep. Mike Lawler boosts Cuomo. They see him as the most viable option. Their endorsements create a buzz at rallies in new york, influencing undecided voters and shaping republican polls.
Concerns about Zohran Mamdani driving GOP realignment
Concerns over Zohran Mamdani’s platform, like free buses and higher taxes, drive the shift. National attacks, like Donald Trump calling Mamdani a “communist,” add to the urgency. In this climate, some Republicans are turning to Andrew Cuomo, a trend seen in republican polls and repulican polls.
Topline numbers: Mamdani leads, Cuomo gains, Sliwa lags
New polls from Quinnipiac show changes in the race. These shifts are seen in other polls and NY Republican polls. As early voting starts in New York City, the electorate is in motion.
Current standing: 43% Mamdani, 33% Cuomo, 14% Sliwa
Zohran Mamdani leads with 43%, followed by Andrew Cuomo at 33%, and Curtis Sliwa at 14%. 6% are undecided, and 3% won’t say, mirroring broader polls but differing from NY Republican polls.
Shifts in the latest Quinnipiac poll
From the October 9 poll, Mamdani dropped from 46% to 43%, Cuomo stayed at 33%, and Sliwa fell from 15% to 14%. The gap now is 10 points, unlike the Manhattan Institute’s wider gap and Sliwa’s 19%. This shows how polls can vary based on their methods and samples.
Undecided and refusal rates indicating late movement
Undecided voters rose from 3% to 6%, and refusals from 2% to 3%. This indicates a late shift as voting begins. Such changes can affect the latest polls and NY Republican polls, where small changes can make a big difference.
Partisan breakdowns: Democrats, Republicans, and independents
Voter blocs are moving in clear lanes that shape the map. The latest polls show distinct paths for each campaign. NY Republican polls echo the split seen across party lines. A snapshot of partisan behavior clarifies where the race tightens and where it widens.
National party affiliation trends offer helpful context for these shifts. They reinforce what republican polls are capturing on the ground.
Democrats back Mamdani, Republicans tilt to Cuomo
Zohran Mamdani leads among Democrats with 59%. Andrew Cuomo has 31%, and Curtis Sliwa has 4%. The rest are undecided or refuse to answer. These numbers align with broader patterns seen in polls that track urban coalitions.
Republican voters show a different picture. The former New York Governor leads with 45%. He edges Sliwa at 44%, with Mamdani at 5%. 5% are undecided. This GOP split mirrors recent NY Republican polls and shows how crossover appeal can redirect expected support.
Independents split evenly between Cuomo and Mamdani
Independents are even at 34% for Cuomo and 34% for Mamdani. Sliwa posts 18%, with 10% undecided and 4% refusing. This balance highlights a swing lane where small changes can matter, a theme consistent with republican polls tracking late movement.
These cross-pressures make independents the fulcrum, even as base voters set the outer bounds of the race.
Strategic implications for each campaign
Mamdani’s advantage among Democrats anchors his position. Cuomo’s strength with Republicans and parity among independents give him room to expand. For Sliwa, the task is to stem GOP leakage to the former New York Governor and regain definition with independents.
| Voter Group | Mamdani | Cuomo | Sliwa | Undecided | Refuse |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democrats | 59% | 31% | 4% | 3% | 2% |
| Republicans | 5% | 45% | 44% | 5% | 1% |
| Independents | 34% | 34% | 18% | 10% | 4% |
As campaigns parse these numbers, they track shifts that align with NY Republican polls and other polls alike. They watch how each bloc responds to message, media, and ground game.
Age dynamics: how support shifts from younger to older voters
Recent polls show a clear divide in the NYC race. Younger voters have different priorities than older ones. The former New York Governor’s presence highlights these differences.
Younger voters favor Mamdani decisively
Voters 18–34 back Zohran Mamdani by 64%, with Cuomo at 20% and Sliwa at 7%. 8% are undecided. Among 35–49-year-olds, Mamdani leads with 50%, Cuomo at 25%, and Sliwa at 13%. 7% are undecided.
These polls show a clear preference for affordability and progress among the young.
Cuomo’s advantage among voters 50 and older
With age, the preference shifts. Voters 50–64 choose Cuomo 41% to Mamdani’s 35%. Sliwa gets 17%, and 3% are undecided. Among those 65+, Cuomo leads with 39%, Mamdani at 33%, and Sliwa at 19%. 4% are undecided.
For many older voters, Cuomo represents stability and experience.
Targeting messages by age cohort
Campaigns adjust their messages based on age. Mamdani focuses on housing, transit, and college debt for younger voters. Cuomo emphasizes public safety, budget, and experience for older voters.
Sliwa targets older voters who prioritize public safety, as seen in NY Republican polls.
Voter resolve: how likely supporters are to change their minds
Voters seem set as the race gets closer, polls show. The Quinnipiac prediction suggests a tight contest. It points to strong support among core groups and a small number of undecided voters.
Stability among Mamdani and Cuomo backers
Quinnipiac’s “minds made up” measure shows strong resolve. Zohran Mamdani’s supporters are 92% unlikely to change their minds. Andrew Cuomo’s voters are just as firm, with 90% saying they won’t switch.
This certainty is seen in many polls. It shows that winning over voters might be harder than expected. The Quinnipiac prediction suggests that getting people to vote might be more important than changing their minds.
Sliwa voters show comparatively more fluidity
Curtis Sliwa’s supporters are less certain. While 81% say they won’t switch, 19% are open to changing their vote. This means there’s room for movement in the GOP and among independents.
Quinnipiac polls show a contrast. Mamdani and Cuomo have strong bases, but Sliwa’s voters are more flexible. This makes Sliwa’s supporters the key to watch.
What late deciders could mean for outcomes
Undecided voters have risen to 6%, with 3% refusing to answer. Even small changes from them can make a big difference. This is true if Republican voters start to support Cuomo or if Sliwa gains more support.
Campaigns will focus on reaching voters and keeping their message clear. Polls, including Quinnipiac’s, show that undecided voters are key to the outcome.
Issue priorities: crime, affordable housing, and inflation shape the race
Voters look at candidates through the lenses of money and safety. Recent polls show that crime, housing costs, and inflation are key issues in New York City. The latest polls on the Republican field and several NY Republican polls show a clear order. A high-profile poll among GOP voters also reflects these patterns.
These fault lines mirror how candidates frame their messages and where undecided voters listen.
Crime leads overall and among Republicans
Crime is the biggest worry for most, at 26%. For Republicans, it’s even more pressing, at 52%. This is why Republicans often focus on law and order in NY Republican polls. Some polls also show interest in Andrew Cuomo’s safety record across party lines.
Inflation is a close second for GOP voters, at 10%. This shows the everyday cost pressures that tie to crime.
Affordable housing tops the list for Democrats
For Democrats, affordable housing is the top concern, at 25%. Crime and inflation follow, at 18% and 13% respectively. Health care is next, at 11%. No other issue gets more than 10%.
This order reflects a focus on rent, new housing, and tenant rights. Zohran Mamdani leads with Democrats on housing. Cuomo’s safety message resonates where crime is a big issue.
Independent voters’ mixed concerns
Independents have mixed worries: crime at 28%, inflation at 16%, and affordable housing at 15%. Health care is at 11%. This shows a group that cares about both cost and safety.
Curtis Sliwa sees an opportunity in crime. Yet, the trend in Republican polls shows votes are up for grabs. Campaigns can tailor their messages to meet local needs while keeping a broad coalition.
Favorable versus unfavorable: candidate perception and electability
New polls show voters care about who they like and who can win. In NY Republican polls and citywide surveys, it’s all about who people know and who they think can win in November. Each campaign is trying to show they have momentum and fix their weak spots.
Cuomo’s favorability gap and paths to improvement
Andrew Cuomo is seen favorably by 34% and unfavorably by 54% of likely voters. But 8% say they don’t know enough, leaving room for improvement. His best chance is to focus on being electable by talking about public safety and getting support from all sides.
In NY Republican polls, Cuomo does better when the topic is crime and competence. Republican voters like order and experience, which can help Cuomo if he keeps his message clear.
Mamdani’s name recognition with younger voters
Zohran Mamdani is seen favorably by 45% and unfavorably by 41%, with 11% unsure. He’s well-known among 18–49 voters, where being seen and heard matters. His young supporters are loyal, thanks to his clear message.
His strong presence online and on campuses helps him stay relevant, even when polls focus on crime. This keeps his appeal strong with the young crowd, while older voters are influenced by last-minute information.
Sliwa’s awareness challenge and ceiling
Curtis Sliwa is seen favorably by 29% and unfavorably by 38%, with 30% unsure. This shows he has a reach problem and a limited ceiling unless he gets more attention quickly. Without a boost, his visibility might not grow as voters make up their minds.
Republican polls suggest Sliwa is not well-known by many voters, which limits his chances late in the game. To improve, he needs to stand out more and make clear differences, focusing on security and reaching undecided voters.
Comparisons and predictions: Quinnipiac prediction signals and other surveys
New numbers highlight the tight race. The latest quinnipiac polls show a close field. Other polls vary in their margins and predictions of voter turnout.
Experts analyze how each poll method affects the quinnipiac prediction. This is as early voting increases and endorsements pile up.
How the Manhattan Institute poll contrasts with Quinnipiac
The Manhattan Institute survey, conducted Oct. 22–26, found a wider lead for Zohran Mamdani. Curtis Sliwa was seen with a higher share. Yet, quinnipiac polls, with 911 likely voters, show Sliwa lower and the gap narrower.
Different sampling frames and likely voter screens explain the difference. Question wording and weighting also play a role. This can make Sliwa appear stronger in some polls, widening Mamdani’s lead over Andrew Cuomo.
Reading the tea leaves from prediction markets
Prediction markets saw Mamdani’s contract price drop midweek. On Polymarket, traders thought Cuomo might take the lead if the trend continued. This doesn’t change the polls, but shows how fast opinions can shift with new endorsements and fundraising.
Market prices often move before polls, then stabilize with new data. This dynamic keeps campaigns on their toes, watching for changes in undecided voters.
Trendlines heading into Election Day
From Oct. 9 to Oct. 29, Mamdani’s lead narrowed slightly. Cuomo stayed steady, and Sliwa dropped a bit. Rising undecided and refusal rates add uncertainty, affecting soft partisans in republican polls.
With early votes cast, late messages could sway undecided voters. It’s key to see if the next quinnipiac polls confirm the current trend or show a pause.
| Survey | Field Dates | Sample | Mamdani | Cuomo | Sliwa | Undecided/Refusal | Noted Method Factors |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinnipiac (Late Oct.) | Oct. 27–29 | 911 likely voters (MOE ±4.0) | 43% | 33% | 14% | 9% | Broader screen; consistent with prior quinnipiac polls; tighter margin |
| Manhattan Institute | Oct. 22–26 | 600 likely voters | +15 over Cuomo | — | 19% | 8% | Different weighting; higher Sliwa share; larger lead than quinnipiac prediction |
| Prediction Markets Snapshot | Tuesday Update | Market prices | Softening odds | Improving odds | Flat to slight dip | N/A | Sensitive to endorsements; reacts faster than traditional polls |
Rally in New York: endorsements and the late-campaign narrative
The campaign has picked up speed with a rally in new york. Endorsements are playing a big role as votes come in and new polls are released. Both sides are testing their messages against the latest data and the tone set by key supporters.
Cross-party endorsements for the former New York governor
Andrew Cuomo, the former New York Governor, has gained rare support from both sides. Mike Bloomberg, Rep. Tom Suozzi, and former Governor David Paterson have endorsed him. They were joined by Republicans Nick Langworthy and Rep. Mike Lawler, showing that Cuomo could win over some Republicans too.
These endorsements make Cuomo seem like a steady choice in the crowded race. They give voters who are undecided a reason to choose him, thanks to his experience and trustworthiness.
Why some Republicans prefer Cuomo over the latest Republican candidate
Some Republicans think Cuomo is more likely to win. Nick Langworthy, once critical, now sees Cuomo as a better option. He points to Cuomo’s experience and doubts about Curtis Sliwa’s chances.
For conservatives, Cuomo’s stance on crime and his ability to lead are key. If they believe Cuomo has a better chance, they might switch their support, even in a rally in new york where party loyalty is strong.
Field operations: canvassing, phone banking, and early voting
Groundwork is booming as more people vote early. Mamdani’s team is doing a lot of canvassing, phone banking, and has a big volunteer group. Cuomo’s team is focusing on voters who are most likely to vote, based on polls and data.
With almost half a million early votes, reaching out to voters is critical. The campaigns are using short messages and tracking their efforts to turn support into actual votes.
| Campaign Activity | Focus Areas | Key Messengers | Data Signals Referenced |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-Party Endorsements | Moderates, suburban commuters, swing districts | Mike Bloomberg, David Paterson, Tom Suozzi | Recent polls and republica polls on electability |
| GOP Realignment Appeals | Crime-first Republicans, independents | Nick Langworthy, Rep. Mike Lawler | Late-breaking polls showing viability gaps |
| Canvassing and Phone Banking | High-density neighborhoods, early-vote hotspots | Volunteer captains, precinct leads | Turnout files, early-vote counts, precinct-level polls |
| Targeted Persuasion | Undecided and soft-lean voters | Local community leaders | Contact histories, message testing from polls |
Conclusion
The latest Quinnipiac polls show a tight race at the end of the campaign. Zohran Mamdani leads by 10 points citywide. But, Andrew Cuomo is close behind with 45% of Republican votes, just ahead of Curtis Sliwa at 44%. Independents are evenly split between Mamdani and Cuomo, showing a tight contest in the middle.
Young voters support Mamdani, while those 50 and older favor Cuomo. This shows how different issues matter to different groups. Crime is a big concern for Republicans and many independents, helping Cuomo’s safety message. On the other hand, affordable housing is a top issue for Democrats, supporting Mamdani’s platform.
Despite Cuomo’s low favorability, Sliwa is working hard to win over Republicans. The Quinnipiac polls suggest a close race, with Mamdani likely to win. But, the gap is narrowing, making the final days critical.
Turnout and late changes in voting patterns will be key. Early voting and Cuomo’s cross-party endorsements add to the tension. For those following polls, the key takeaway is Cuomo’s growing support among Republicans, changing the race’s outlook.
In the final days, watch three key areas. Can Mamdani keep his lead among young voters? Will Cuomo gain more support from older voters? And can Sliwa win back Republicans who have moved to Cuomo? If these factors hold, Mamdani is likely to win, but the race is getting tighter, making the final push very important.
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