Here’s a surprising fact: in 44 countries, 54% want Kamala Harris, while 26% choose Donald Trump. But in the U.S., Gallup’s final polls show a very close race. This contrast highlights the high stakes for Election Day.
Gallup’s late-September poll found 48% like Harris and 47% like Trump. A later poll showed 49% for Harris and 44% for Trump. This shows how tight the race is in Gallup’s polls.
About half of adults rate each candidate positively, from +5 to -5. This is a low compared to the mid-20th century. But it’s a high for Trump after his 2016 low.
These poll results match other presidential election polls, showing deep polarization. Both candidates have more people viewing them unfavorably than favorably. Independents lean slightly negative toward Trump. This suggests a battle for who will vote, not who will change their mind.
Vice-presidential candidates also show the mood. Tim Walz has 45% favorable, while JD Vance has 39%. As people look at Gallup polls and other election polls, the main message is clear. The margins are small, and who turns out to vote might win the election.
Overview of Gallup’s final preelection read on Trump and Harris
Gallup’s last poll before voting day shows a tight race. It’s not just about plans, but how people feel. The results show changing american voter opinions from a wide survey. Both sides are closely watching the candidate approval ratings change by the hour.
Why favorability matters in presidential election polls
Favorability shows trust, temperament, and readiness. In the gallup presidential polls 2024, it often shows who’s gaining momentum. When a candidate’s favorables go up, so do donations, volunteers, and media support. This boosts their gains in the survey and poll results.
Topline favorables: Harris 49% vs. Trump 44% on the binary scale
The final Gallup read shows Kamala Harris at 49% favorable and Donald Trump at 44%. In late September, Harris was at 48% and Trump at 47%, a near tie. Both candidate approval ratings and the scalometer show modest positives, but with strong views.
Context: Tight margins heading into Election Day
The scalometer from October 1–12 found half of adults rating each positively. Yet, these levels are low by history. With american voter opinions so strong, small changes could sway the election. These changes are key in the gallup presidential polls 2024 and the wider survey.
Gallup’s “scalometer” vs. binary favorability: what the measures show
Voters see two different lenses in gallup presidential polls. One is the classic scalometer, a +5 to -5 score that captures warmth and chill. The other is a simple favorable or unfavorable choice. Together, they map intensity and breadth, giving richer data than a single read can.
Method matters. The gallup poll methodology uses the scalometer to gauge intensity and the binary item to show reach. In early October, about half of U.S. adults placed Donald Trump and Kamala Harris on the positive side of the scale, a level that sits on the lower end of modern nominees. Trump’s positive share looks much like 2020 and well above his 36% mark in 2016, as detailed in this Gallup trend analysis.
Scalometer (+5 to -5): roughly half rate Trump and Harris positively
The scalometer captures more than a thumbs-up. It shows strength of feeling, from +5 to -5. In the Oct. 1–12 reading, roughly half of adults rated both candidates on the positive side, signaling modest breadth with mixed intensity. This balance is key for understanding gallup poll accuracy, as small shifts can change overall sentiment.
Binary favorable/unfavorable: 48% Harris vs. 47% Trump in late September
The binary measure simplifies the choice to favorable or unfavorable. In late September, Harris stood at 48% favorable and Trump at 47%. This snapshot of presidential polling data provides a clean comparison point and complements the scalometer by trimming nuance in favor of clear contrast.
Interpreting highly positive vs. highly negative intensity
Intensity cuts to turnout energy. On the scalometer, highly favorable means +4 or +5, while highly unfavorable means -4 or -5. In 2024, intensity tilts negative: Trump posts 31% highly favorable against 37% highly unfavorable; Harris registers 30% versus 34%. Such gaps help analysts judge persuasion versus mobilization, a key factor when weighing gallup poll accuracy across measures.
How these indicators compare to presidential approval ratings
Favorability is not the same as presidential approval ratings. Approval grades a sitting president’s job performance, while favorability tracks personal image for candidates. In campaign contexts, the scalometer and binary reads often better signal intensity and mood, guiding how gallup poll methodology frames public sentiment beyond job scores.
Viewed together, the scalometer’s intensity and the binary share create a fuller profile of both candidates. When read against historical baselines and current presidential polling data, these paired tools make trends easier to spot and compare within gallup presidential polls.
Intensity and polarization in 2024 ratings
Gallup’s latest data shows a strong divide in opinions. More people are at the extremes than in the middle. This pattern has been seen in national elections, starting from 2016. Analysts say this sharp divide affects how campaigns plan and what messages they send.
Highly favorable: 31% Trump, 30% Harris
When it comes to intensity, Trump and Harris are almost tied at the top. About a third of adults have the strongest positive views of them. This balance makes it hard to sway voters but can boost turnout efforts.
Highly unfavorable: 37% Trump, 34% Harris
But, more people have strong negative views. Trump and Harris each have 37% and 34% of people viewing them unfavorably. This can make voters’ minds up early, leaving fewer undecided voters as Election Day approaches.
Independents: 21% highly favorable for both; stronger negatives for Trump (35%) than Harris (29%)
Independents are split at the top but not at the bottom. Both candidates have 21% of people viewing them very favorably. But, Trump has 35% and Harris has 29% of people viewing them unfavorably. This difference is key because independents often decide late in the game.
What intensity means for turnout and national election trends
When more people have strong negative views, campaigns focus on getting people to vote. Gallup polls show this shift in strategy. It means more effort on getting people registered, voting early, and being in touch often. This approach is linked to close races, where getting people excited can make a difference.
| Measure | Trump | Harris | Independents: Trump | Independents: Harris |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Highly Favorable (%) | 31 | 30 | 21 | 21 |
| Highly Unfavorable (%) | 37 | 34 | 35 | 29 |
| Interpretive Signal | Stronger negatives can limit persuasion | Balanced intensity supports turnout focus | Net negative intensity pressures margins | Softer negatives preserve flexibility |
| Implication for National Election Trends | Mobilize core voters | Optimize swing outreach | Mitigate drop-off risk | Expand late deciders |
The intensity in Gallup polls matches national trends: fewer people to sway, more focus on getting people to vote, and clearer differences between candidates. These findings reflect how polarization affects the election’s final stretch.
Historical benchmarks from Gallup presidential election polls
For decades, we’ve seen how what people want in a president has changed. In the past, many candidates were seen as very favorable. Now, those standards seem too high. Looking at today’s polls against this backdrop helps us understand what voters expect.
Most postwar nominees once topped 60% positive—fewer do now
In the mid-20th century, many candidates got over 60% positive ratings. Names like Adlai Stevenson, Richard Nixon, and Jimmy Carter were among them. But, more recent polls show a drop, with only a few candidates reaching that high.
Low-end records: Trump 2016 at 36% positive; sub-50% club includes Goldwater 1964 and Clinton 2016
Donald Trump’s 2016 rating was just 36% positive. Others like Barry Goldwater and Hillary Clinton also scored low. This trend has continued, with Trump and Kamala Harris in 2024 also scoring below 50%.
High-intensity negativity is a modern phenomenon post-2016
After 2016, polls have shown more people with very negative views. Trump, Clinton, and Harris have all seen high levels of disapproval. This shift is a big change from the past, when negatives were less common.
Partisan splits: how Republicans, Democrats, and independents diverge
Partisanship is big in 2024. American voters show deep divides that affect how they vote and who they support. Gallup polls show strong feelings among party members and a tight race among independents.
Own-party enthusiasm: Harris 72% highly favorable among Democrats; Trump 68% among Republicans
Party loyalty is strong. Democrats love Kamala Harris, with 72% saying they find her highly favorable. Republicans also show strong support for Donald Trump, with 68% feeling the same way.
This shows a long-standing trend in Gallup polls. When elections get closer, party loyalty grows stronger.
Opposition negatives hit historic highs: 80% highly unfavorable for Trump among Democrats
Feelings against the opposing party are at an all-time high. Eighty percent of Democrats don’t like Trump, a record. Harris also faces high dislike from Republicans, showing a deepening divide.
This change is new and affects how polls are done. It makes predicting election outcomes harder.
Independent voters’ edge for Harris on favorability (44% vs. 42%)
Independents slightly favor Harris, 44% to 42%. They are equally divided in their strong feelings, but more dislike Trump than Harris.
This small difference is important. In close elections, independents can sway the outcome. Their choices are key in Gallup polls and election results.
| Group | Highly Favorable Harris | Highly Favorable Trump | Highly Unfavorable Toward Harris | Highly Unfavorable Toward Trump | Binary Favorable Harris | Binary Favorable Trump |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democrats | 72% | — | — | 80% | — | — |
| Republicans | — | 68% | ≥70% | — | — | — |
| Independents | 21% | 21% | 29% | 35% | 44% | 42% |
Vice-presidential ripple effects in gallup presidential polls 2024
Running mates add depth to the presidential election survey. They shape how voters see the candidates and influence news coverage. The gallup poll methodology combines intensity measures with simple favorables. This gives a clearer view of how tickets resonate with voters and how close the election might be.
Walz 45% favorable vs. Vance 39% favorable
Tim Walz has a 45% favorable rating nationwide, while JD Vance has 39%. These numbers show how voters see the ticket’s balance and message at the end of the campaign.
These differences highlight how voters judge leadership style, governing record, and tone. They also guide election forecasting analysis, looking for small but significant edges.
Among independents: Walz 39% vs. Vance 36%
Independents favor Walz at 39%, while Vance gets 36%. This group often decides late, so small changes in ratings can be big.
Gallup poll results among independents help shape field strategy, messaging, and expectations in any presidential election survey.
How running mates can shape candidate approval ratings
Vice-presidential picks can strengthen a candidate’s message, expand their reach, and steady the narrative during scrutiny. Positive or negative cues from the running mate can affect the top of the ticket. This shows up in candidate approval ratings across media cycles.
In tight races, this impact can sway undecided voters. This is tracked through election forecasting analysis, blending trend lines with turnout models.
Field dates and instruments: Oct. 1–12 scalometer; late-September binary ratings
The gallup poll methodology used an Oct. 1–12 scalometer for intensity and late-September binary questions for topline favorables. These tools provide depth to gallup poll results. They align with how a presidential election survey captures both intensity and breadth.
Comparing these methods helps understand whether enthusiasm or simple liking is more important in the final stretch.
Global lens: how world opinion contrasts with U.S. presidential polling data
Outside the U.S., public opinion research shows a different view than many polls. A Novus study with Gallup International Association in October 2024 surveyed 40,888 adults across 44 countries. It gives a wide view for election forecasting, unlike Gallup polls in America.
Method note: Each country had about 1,000 participants, with a margin of error of ±3–5% at 95% confidence. Gallup International Association is separate from Gallup Inc. in Washington, D.C., often cited in U.S. polls.
Across 44 countries, 54% would choose Harris vs. 26% Trump
Globally, most people preferred Kamala Harris over Donald Trump. This gap shows how international views differ from U.S. polls. It highlights cross-border opinions, not U.S. voting intentions.
Regional patterns: Western Europe favors Harris; Eastern Europe and parts of Southeast Asia lean Trump
In Western Europe, Harris got high support in countries like Denmark, Finland, Sweden, and Norway. Eastern Europe and parts of Southeast Asia, though, leaned towards Trump. Serbia, Hungary, Bulgaria, and Kazakhstan showed strong Trump support. Russia also leaned towards Trump.
Perceived world stability: higher with Harris, lower with Trump
People saw Harris as more stable and Trump as less stable. This explains why some regions voted in similar ways. It adds depth to public opinion research beyond borders.
Why international views don’t substitute for U.S. presidential election polls
Global surveys give insights into mood, media, and market risks. But they can’t replace U.S. polls like Gallup’s. For American voters, Gallup polls and state data are key. International views can set the stage, but not predict, U.S. election results.
- Use global findings to enrich analysis, not to project vote share.
- Rely on U.S.-based presidential election polls for likely electorate signals.
- Blend international context with state and national indicators for balanced election forecasting analysis.
Conclusion
Gallup’s final polls show a tight race, with Kamala Harris slightly ahead in favorability. The numbers are close, with Harris at 49% and Donald Trump at 44%. This mirrors the numbers from late September, where Harris had a 48% to 47% lead.
About half of Americans have a positive view of each candidate. This is lower than usual, showing the deep divide in the country. It highlights the importance of the 2024 presidential polls.
This year, intensity is key. More people have strong negative views than positive ones for both candidates. Trump’s negatives are higher among Democrats and some independents, which could affect the outcome.
Running mates also play a role. Tim Walz, Harris’s running mate, is seen more favorably than JD Vance, Trump’s choice. This small edge could be important in the election.
Global opinions also lean towards Harris, but U.S. voters’ opinions are what really matter. The polls show a tight race, with Harris having a slight edge among independents.
The 2024 presidential polls show a close race. It’s all about intensity, party loyalty, and Harris’s slight lead among independents. Campaigns must be precise, focusing on ground game and message. The polls will show who wins, with enthusiasm and resistance playing big roles.
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